Guess Who Wins?

re.The purpose of this blog is to push the pause-button at the Friday night dinner table. Please print and share...lease print and share...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last week our topic was legacy.

This week it's what's on everyone's mind.

It's a remarkable thing - the US presidential election is the only such election in the world that makes headlines in every single country in the world. In many ways, we're electing the world leader.

So first of all, try asking at your table: Who do you think will win, and why?

It's interesting, almost everyone has an opinion on the matter. That is, everyone on the planet. 

But so what? Why does anyone's opinion matter?

Here are two people whose opinions might matter more than average.

There are two professors who have carefully studied the patterns of history and developed a highly accurate understanding of these patterns enabling them to predict the outcome of presidential elections.

1. American University Historian Allan Lichtman, who has accuractly predicted elections since 1984 with his "13 Keys".

2. Stony Brook Political Scientists Helmut Norpoth whose model accurately predicted 25 out of 27 elections with his "Primary Model".
 

This year, Professor Lichtman says Biden will win.

And Professor Norpoth predicts Trump will win.

Question for your table: Is it a toss-up? Or does this mean we should expect a tie?

Bigger question for the table: Is it possible to stop thinking about the future and start living in the present moment?


Shabbat Shalom

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Faith in Polls and Pols

The goal of this blog is to move half the country towards stage 5. Please share.
Happy birthday to Amy in West Hartford...!

From a well-known social commentator:

"I woke up this morning still in shock and grief... "

The grief we understand. And if the outcome had been the other way, the other 50 percent of the country was going to wake up in grief.

But where does the shock come from?

Consider:

"Let’s dispense with the notion that Trump has a real shot at winning in November."
James Downie, Washington Post, Mar 3, 2016
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-donald-trump-wont-be-elected-president/2016/03/03/50dafd0e-e169-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html

"He lacks the political skills, the likability, the public support and the fundraising ability to beat Hillary Clinton. That's why he won't even come close."
- Tim Carney, Washington Examiner, April 11, 2016
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/no-trump-cant-win/article/2588132

"Donald Trump will not, cannot, win the general election for U.S president.... It's time for the media to stop pretending otherwise…"
Carlo Dade, Sr. Fellow, School of International Development and Global Studies, Univ. of Ottawa, May 17, 2016
www.huffingtonpost.ca/carlo-dade/trump-election_b_9998278.html

"Relax, Donald Trump can't win. Even before you get to his campaign’s incompetence and lackluster fundraising, the numbers just aren’t on his side."
Jon Wiener, The Nation, June 21, 2016
https://www.thenation.com/article/trump-cant-win/

"Moody’s Analytics is forecasting that Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will easily win the presidency in November over Republican Donald Trump, the June forecast predicts.... The model, which has predicted every election correctly since it was created in 1980, has forecasted a Democratic victory since the release of its first run in July 2015."
- Vicki Needham, The Hill, Jul 1 2016
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/prediction-hillary-clinton-easily-wins-beats-donald-trump-moodys-presidential-election-model

"Does the thought of President Donald Trump keep you up at night? Maybe this will make you feel better: he can't win."
- Annie Gabillet, Jul 2, 2016
http://www.popsugar.com/news/Donald-Trump-Cant-Win-General-Election-40403924

"Trump is underperforming so comprehensively...[for him to win] it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’' said an Iowa Republican.
- Steven Shepard, Aug 12, 2016
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-electoral-votes-gop-insiders-226932  

"The election is already over…. It’s possible that public opinion shifts dramatically between now and then. But if it doesn’t, Donald Trump has no path to the presidency."
- Tim Alberta, National Review, Aug 30, 2016
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439466/donald-trump-electoral-map-paths-270-impossibly-narrow

"Sen. Mike Lee said Sunday that embattled Republican nominee Donald Trump cannot win the White House and needs to step aside to allow the GOP to find someone who can take on Democrat Hillary Clinton."
- Salt Lake Tribune, Oct 9, 2016
http://www.sltrib.com/news/4448500-155/utahs-lee-says-trump-cant-win

"Recent polls have shown Trump as low as 35% – three weeks from the election. It is all but over for the Republican nominee. Gary Johnson is right to say that Donald Trump cannot win this election."
- J Wilson, Libertarian Future, Oct 13, 2016
 https://alibertarianfuture.com/2016-election/gary-johnson-says-donald-trump-cannot-win-election/

"Donald Trump is a dud of politician who squandered his advantages in a winnable election. More than just a bad candidate, he has been a catastrophe for the GOP itself. He has destroyed careers, compromised institutions, revealed deep contradictions within the Republican Party, and heightened tensions between its voters and its lawmakers, its activists and its intellectuals. On Nov. 8, nearly 18 months after he announced his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, the saga of Trump will come to a close. If polls are accurate, he will lose. He may even face a landslide, as Hillary Clinton capitalizes on a superior campaign to score victories in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. There’s a slim but real chance that, when the smoke clears, Trump will have led the GOP to a historic defeat, handing the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives to the Democratic Party."
James Rouelle, Slate, Nov 2, 2016
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/trump_can_happen_again.html

"The American people in their wisdom will not allow themselves to be led into the abyss by a person so dangerous and destructive of American democracy and values – something he has proved every day he has been a candidate for President of the United States. It is Hillary Clinton who will claim victory, and take the country forward."
- Bruce Wolpe, ABC News, Nov 6, 2016
 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-07/opinion-bruce-wolpe-hillary-clinton-to-win-with-274/7998650

"Trump Limps Toward Defeat As GOP Pollsters Say Hillary Clinton Will Get At Least 304 EVs"
- Politcus USA, Nov 6, 2016
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/06/trump-limps-defeat-gop-pollsters-hillary-clinton-304-evs.html

The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory. Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215.
- Natalie Jackson, Huffington Post, Nov 7, 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94

Most probable single outcome: Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV. This is also the mode of the NC-adjusted histogram.
Median: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.2%. One-sigma range: Clinton 281-326 EV. The win probability is 93% using the revised assumption of polling error, +/- 1.1%.
- Princeton Election Consortium, Nov 8, 2016
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/08/final-mode-projections-clinton-323-ev-51-di-senate-seats-gop-house/

Now, there were a couple (only a couple) dissenting voices out there.

One was Prof. Allan Lichtman who has correctly forecast presidential elections for 30 years. He called this one for Trump in September. (For a simpler, but probably correct take, read this.)

Two questions for your table:

1. When something occurs against all odds, pundits call it an upset and religious people a miracle. Was it an upset, a quasi-miracle?

2. Does this election herald the final downfall of faith in polls and pols?

If not, why not?

If yes, what then?


Shabbat Shalom


PS - Are you counting the days to Channuka?
PPS - Did you find this week's easter egg?

When you forgive, you in no way change the past - but you sure do change the future.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/topics/topic_forgiveness.html

When you forgive, you in no way change the past - but you sure do change the future.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/topics/topic_forgivene

dfdfd

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Exhuming Obama

The purpose of this blog is to help you turn your Friday night table into the talk of the town. Please print & share.

(If you have our iphone/ipad app, The Amazing Jewish Fact-a-Day Calendar, and it has been malfunctioning the past few weeks, some good news. We have submitted an update to Apple that includes fixing many broken links. If you do not have the app, from now through Sunday we have made it FREE. That's right, that is not an error. The app will be free through Sunday night. All owners of the app (paid or free) will receive the 2.6 upgrade when Apple releases it.)

True story: A woman is just leaving the house on the way to do some really important shopping.... and there's a neighbor whom she always finds so annoying.

"Oh what great timing! My phone is out and I really need to make a call. Do you think I could borrow your cell phone for a few minutes?"

The woman really doesn't want to help. She has a tight schedule and a list of errands. Let her borrow someone else's phone, she's thinking.

This woman is being tested. I will offer my interpretation of her test and how it applies to you and me.

Last week, several astute readers caught an error in this email. I had written that the ghost of Samuel came up feet first. In fact, he the story tells specifically that he came up head first, unlike ordinary ghosts.

The reason is quite simple: he was being called by King Saul, and when being called by a king, you don't come feet-first. See Miss Manners, Chapter 1.

So this leads us to the obvious question: Does the same protocol apply to the president of the United States?

If President Obama were to hold a seance to contact the ghost of, let's say, Jimmy Carter, no wait, technically he's he's still alive. Let's say, the ghost of Dick Cheney....

No, he's technically still alive too.

OK, let's imagine Obama, he's rounding the corner to the final stretch of this horse race, he's got Romney so close behind he can feel his breath on the back of his neck. He's tried everything to get those poll numbers higher, nothing is working. He's into the low 50s, but it's too close for comfort.

So he holds a seance in the Rose Room to see if he can get a little pep talk from the ghost of Ronald Reagan.

Wait a second. Would Obama, a Democrat, turn to Mr. Conservative Revolution for eleventh-hour counsel?

Here's a little presidential secret for you: these presidential guys have a lot more in common than you think.

Anyway, the real question is - does Reagan come up feet first like an ordinary ghost, or does he come up head first in honor of the President?

(Believe it or not, this is actually going somewhere....)

On the one hand, King Saul was a monarch-for-life, while Mr. Obama is an elected, term-limited official.

On the other hand, he's the President. You know, hail-to-the-chief and all that.

Where this is going:

One of the most fundamental of all Jewish values is the concept that every person you meet is created in the same Divine image. (For John Lennon that means, "You better recognize your brother in everyone you meet.")

A person with no Torah but treats others well - especially opponents and adversaries - has a foundation to acquire wisdom, and the wisdom he acquires will stick.

A person who knows the entire Torah but has no respect for others, his Torah has nothing to rest on and he will lose it.

If we Jews were living up to the Torah, we would be so ethical that any non-Jew would do business with us on a handshake.

If we were getting the Torah's core message, we would be so concerned for others that there wouldn't be any hunger.

I think we're on the right track. But we're being tested all the time.

Question for your table: When were you last tested in this area, and how did you do?


Shabbat Shalom

The Next Generation

In memory of Eidla bas Avraham Yonah, who lived to the age of 95, as sharp as she was growing up in Memphis. She was a role model for the idea that you're never too old to learn something new.

If you missed last week's post on the war in Gaza, see the "Here, Israel" link to the right - including how to "adopt" a soldier.


This week: a comment, a story, a story, and a question.

The comment:

I was in San Francisco this week and someone wanted to know: What is the Jewish view of the new leadership in Washington?

The question reminds me of a story, my first day teaching public school in rural Mississippi.

Fresh out of college on the West Coast, I'd never been to the South before. Some of my mostly-black students were suspicious of me for my whiteness as were some of my white neighbors (for my choosing to teach black students. (Most were just surprised that an outsider had taken interest in their little corner of the world.)

The students let me know that what they wanted most from me was to treat them "normal". What the white people wanted most from me was not to make waves. I never had any problems with anyone who met me, only those who saw me from afar, or heard about me.

For example, I once heard through the grapevine that some folks were talking about me because they saw me talking in a friendly way to a certain black person in the grocery store.

Similarly, once I had to call the father of one of my more challenging students in to school to discuss his son's behavior. His son, Toby, was rude to me and often refused to follow directions. The father was six-foot-two and spoke with a deep, slow voice. He came in wearing the dusty clothes of a lumberjack. had to take time off from his low-paying job, and this displeased him.

He spoke to me so deliberately it sounded like he was putting a comma between every word, "I, hear, you, are, too, hard, on, the, children."

It is no accident that Jewish people have been at the forefront of civil rights movements around the world. We should look at Obama's presidency as a great victory for Jewish values. Our vision of leadership is a meritocracy, period.

Or that's the way it's supposed to be at least.

Here's a mini Talmudic story you can tell at your dinner table:

On Yom Kippur, the High Priest used to make a giant break-the-fast feast. Everyone knew and believed that what he did in the Temple that day was on their behalf. So when he came out successfully, the crowd would cheer and escort him. Remember, the High Priesthood can only be held by a direct male descendant of Aaron, Moses's brother. No one else need bother apply.

One Yom Kippur, while being escorted by such a crowd, there was a sudden commotion through the crowd, and all of the people suddenly abandoned him to follow two scholars who had been seen passing down a side street. These were not just any two scholars - they were Shemayah and Abtalion, the greatest of the generation. And they were both descended from converts.

Question for your table - how do you interpret this story? What does it say about merit versus peerage?

(Question for children: How do you decide whom to be friends with? How do the other kids in your class decide?)

I was in record warm weather in San Francisco this week, to return to weather so cold it feels like we're headed for a record low. But things are supposed to warm up next week in Washington...


Shabbat Shalom

PS - sometimes we combine scholarship and royalty - have you heard of the royal rabbi from Swaziland? See also rabbigamedze.com.

Here he is telling his story:

Leadership

A marvelous young man in Jerusalem is fighting for his life against a malicious cancer. His name is Elimelech Dovid ben Chaya Bayla. I would like to dedicate this week’s Table Talk to his speedy convalescence. To dedicate a future Table Talk, send an email.


Last week I promised to write something about Jewish wisdom on choosing a leader.

But first, what do you and those at your dinner table think? On each of these alternatives, choose the one that you think is most important:

1. [A] Wise in all major matters of state v. [B] Relies on wisdom of advisors
2. [A] Upholds the letter of the law v. [B] Upholds the spirit of the law
3. [A] Doesn’t make serious mistakes v. [B] Admits mistakes and apologizes
4. [A] Clean background v. [B] Proverbial skeleton in the closet
5. [A] Commands respect and wields authority v. [B] Walks humbly
6. [A] Multicultural v. [B] Patriotic

OK, don’t peek below until you’ve made your choices...

Now, I’m not claiming there are right or wrong answers, but it seems to me that the weight of Jewish thought would say as follows:

1. B – When King David faced an unemployment problem, he consulted with his advisors on what to do. (He had the advantage of having Nathan, a card-carrying prophet, among them.)
2. A and B. The leader has to be extra diligent in upholding the law in all aspects. Tradition suggests that he or she should possibly keep a copy of the Constitution on hand at all times just as a reminder that not even the King (or President) is above the law.
3. B – no question about this – everyone makes mistakes. If we expect our leaders to be perfect, we are guaranteed to have scandals and cover-ups. If, on the other hand, we let our leaders know that we can live with their errors as long as they own up to them, then we might have both more honesty in government and better role models for us and our children.
4. The surprising answer here is B. now, the Talmud states this specifically about a mayor, but I think it could also apply to a head of state. The idea is that if your leader has something ignoble in his or her background, they are less likely to become haughty.
5. However, the avoidance of pride doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t uphold the great dignity of the office. A head of state, if not lower leaders, must command respect and know how to wield authority. Tradition is highly critical of King Saul for ignoring someone who brashly insulted him.
6. I think this one depends on which leader we’re talking about. On the one hand, the individual Head of State, as the face of the country, must be quite patriotic. On the other hand, he or she must be worldly. The Midrash claims that the pharaohs of ancient Egypt were polyglots as a rule. Other leaders, too, including legislators and judges, serve the people better if they a multilingual.

Multiculturalism is undoubtedly an asset in any time in history. In that spirit, here is one of the most intriguing multi-cultural videos I’ve seen, Fiddler on the Roof in Japanese.


Shabbat Shalom


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