Guess Who Wins?

re.The purpose of this blog is to push the pause-button at the Friday night dinner table. Please print and share...lease print and share...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Last week our topic was legacy.

This week it's what's on everyone's mind.

It's a remarkable thing - the US presidential election is the only such election in the world that makes headlines in every single country in the world. In many ways, we're electing the world leader.

So first of all, try asking at your table: Who do you think will win, and why?

It's interesting, almost everyone has an opinion on the matter. That is, everyone on the planet. 

But so what? Why does anyone's opinion matter?

Here are two people whose opinions might matter more than average.

There are two professors who have carefully studied the patterns of history and developed a highly accurate understanding of these patterns enabling them to predict the outcome of presidential elections.

1. American University Historian Allan Lichtman, who has accuractly predicted elections since 1984 with his "13 Keys".

2. Stony Brook Political Scientists Helmut Norpoth whose model accurately predicted 25 out of 27 elections with his "Primary Model".
 

This year, Professor Lichtman says Biden will win.

And Professor Norpoth predicts Trump will win.

Question for your table: Is it a toss-up? Or does this mean we should expect a tie?

Bigger question for the table: Is it possible to stop thinking about the future and start living in the present moment?


Shabbat Shalom

Announcement: To become a partner in the publication of groundbreaking new book, Body and Soul: A Torah Guide to Health, Fitness, and Longevity, Medically-Annotated, it is now possible to contribute a dedication in someone's honor or memory to be printed in the book, please email dedications@jsli.org for instructions and may the merit of your contribution uplift them and the Jewish People and the world. Eight years in the making, this collaboration of Torah scholars, doctors and dietitians will, we hope, change the way we relate to our bodies and to food.


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Either That Wallpaper Goes....

The goal of this blog is to make every word count at the Shabbat table ...  Please share.
Continuing to wish a speedy recovery to Tamar Adina bas Kayna Shulamis.
Happy Birthday to Marc (but your "real" birthday ain''t til Jan 31!)

Have you prepared your last words?

This week's theme is "spontaneity v. script".

It begins with a real-life dilemma you can share at the dinner table, along with two questions and two advanced questions.

The dilemma:

Someone phoned me this week with a heart-wrenching question:

"We decided we don't want so-and-so to be the godfather of our children anymore. How do we tell him?"

Question for your table: What would you have advised this person?

After offering my rabbinic view, I go home and our 11-year-old is waiting for me to share the wonderful news that her tryout was successful and she received a part in the class play.

She and now is diligently practicing her six lines.

And I'm thinking, "Isn't it wonderful to have a script? To have someone else tell you what to say and how to 'feel'?"

But didn't whoever-wrote-Shakespeare say, "All the world's a stage, and all the men and women merely players"?

So in my sleep-deprived head I'm mixing the two together, the godfather phone call and the script.

We don't like to think about end-of-life scenarios. We hope they will never happen.

But statistically-speaking, there's evidence that most people die. And yet most people don't pass away with memorable dying words.

It's a shame. It's probably more important than a first impression - it's the very last impression you'll leave on the world.

Picture the scene. You've lived a full life. You've reached the proverbial 120. You are surrounded by family and friends. Your last breath is minutes, maybe even moments away.

If you have your wits about you, what are you going to say?

A witticism?

A profound insight to life, the universe and everything?

(Oscar Wilde combined the two: "Either that wallpaper goes or I do.")

You know how they say an actor who writes his own script has a fool for a director?

So maybe we should all just memorize a poetic dying-word from the Bard...or one of his last-lines....

Bonus question for your table: Would it be good or bad to know when you were about to die?

Advanced question: What does this whole discussion have to do with this week's parsha?



Shabbat Shalom


PS - Super-advanced question: What well-known Yiddish word comes from "Godfather"? (Hint) (Answer)

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Faith in Polls and Pols

The goal of this blog is to move half the country towards stage 5. Please share.
Happy birthday to Amy in West Hartford...!

From a well-known social commentator:

"I woke up this morning still in shock and grief... "

The grief we understand. And if the outcome had been the other way, the other 50 percent of the country was going to wake up in grief.

But where does the shock come from?

Consider:

"Let’s dispense with the notion that Trump has a real shot at winning in November."
James Downie, Washington Post, Mar 3, 2016
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/why-donald-trump-wont-be-elected-president/2016/03/03/50dafd0e-e169-11e5-9c36-e1902f6b6571_story.html

"He lacks the political skills, the likability, the public support and the fundraising ability to beat Hillary Clinton. That's why he won't even come close."
- Tim Carney, Washington Examiner, April 11, 2016
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/no-trump-cant-win/article/2588132

"Donald Trump will not, cannot, win the general election for U.S president.... It's time for the media to stop pretending otherwise…"
Carlo Dade, Sr. Fellow, School of International Development and Global Studies, Univ. of Ottawa, May 17, 2016
www.huffingtonpost.ca/carlo-dade/trump-election_b_9998278.html

"Relax, Donald Trump can't win. Even before you get to his campaign’s incompetence and lackluster fundraising, the numbers just aren’t on his side."
Jon Wiener, The Nation, June 21, 2016
https://www.thenation.com/article/trump-cant-win/

"Moody’s Analytics is forecasting that Hillary Clinton, the presumptive Democratic nominee, will easily win the presidency in November over Republican Donald Trump, the June forecast predicts.... The model, which has predicted every election correctly since it was created in 1980, has forecasted a Democratic victory since the release of its first run in July 2015."
- Vicki Needham, The Hill, Jul 1 2016
http://thehill.com/policy/finance/economy/prediction-hillary-clinton-easily-wins-beats-donald-trump-moodys-presidential-election-model

"Does the thought of President Donald Trump keep you up at night? Maybe this will make you feel better: he can't win."
- Annie Gabillet, Jul 2, 2016
http://www.popsugar.com/news/Donald-Trump-Cant-Win-General-Election-40403924

"Trump is underperforming so comprehensively...[for him to win] it would take video evidence of a smiling Hillary drowning a litter of puppies while terrorists surrounded her with chants of ‘Death to America,’' said an Iowa Republican.
- Steven Shepard, Aug 12, 2016
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-electoral-votes-gop-insiders-226932  

"The election is already over…. It’s possible that public opinion shifts dramatically between now and then. But if it doesn’t, Donald Trump has no path to the presidency."
- Tim Alberta, National Review, Aug 30, 2016
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/439466/donald-trump-electoral-map-paths-270-impossibly-narrow

"Sen. Mike Lee said Sunday that embattled Republican nominee Donald Trump cannot win the White House and needs to step aside to allow the GOP to find someone who can take on Democrat Hillary Clinton."
- Salt Lake Tribune, Oct 9, 2016
http://www.sltrib.com/news/4448500-155/utahs-lee-says-trump-cant-win

"Recent polls have shown Trump as low as 35% – three weeks from the election. It is all but over for the Republican nominee. Gary Johnson is right to say that Donald Trump cannot win this election."
- J Wilson, Libertarian Future, Oct 13, 2016
 https://alibertarianfuture.com/2016-election/gary-johnson-says-donald-trump-cannot-win-election/

"Donald Trump is a dud of politician who squandered his advantages in a winnable election. More than just a bad candidate, he has been a catastrophe for the GOP itself. He has destroyed careers, compromised institutions, revealed deep contradictions within the Republican Party, and heightened tensions between its voters and its lawmakers, its activists and its intellectuals. On Nov. 8, nearly 18 months after he announced his bid for the Republican presidential nomination, the saga of Trump will come to a close. If polls are accurate, he will lose. He may even face a landslide, as Hillary Clinton capitalizes on a superior campaign to score victories in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas. There’s a slim but real chance that, when the smoke clears, Trump will have led the GOP to a historic defeat, handing the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives to the Democratic Party."
James Rouelle, Slate, Nov 2, 2016
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/11/trump_can_happen_again.html

"The American people in their wisdom will not allow themselves to be led into the abyss by a person so dangerous and destructive of American democracy and values – something he has proved every day he has been a candidate for President of the United States. It is Hillary Clinton who will claim victory, and take the country forward."
- Bruce Wolpe, ABC News, Nov 6, 2016
 http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-11-07/opinion-bruce-wolpe-hillary-clinton-to-win-with-274/7998650

"Trump Limps Toward Defeat As GOP Pollsters Say Hillary Clinton Will Get At Least 304 EVs"
- Politcus USA, Nov 6, 2016
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/06/trump-limps-defeat-gop-pollsters-hillary-clinton-304-evs.html

The HuffPost presidential forecast model gives Democrat Hillary Clinton a 98.2 percent chance of winning the presidency. Republican Donald Trump has essentially no path to an Electoral College victory. Clinton’s win will be substantial, but not overwhelming. The model projects that she’ll garner 323 electoral votes to Trump’s 215.
- Natalie Jackson, Huffington Post, Nov 7, 2016
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/polls-hillary-clinton-win_us_5821074ce4b0e80b02cc2a94

Most probable single outcome: Clinton 323 EV, Trump 215 EV. This is also the mode of the NC-adjusted histogram.
Median: Clinton 307 EV, Trump 231 EV. Meta-Margin: 2.2%. One-sigma range: Clinton 281-326 EV. The win probability is 93% using the revised assumption of polling error, +/- 1.1%.
- Princeton Election Consortium, Nov 8, 2016
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/11/08/final-mode-projections-clinton-323-ev-51-di-senate-seats-gop-house/

Now, there were a couple (only a couple) dissenting voices out there.

One was Prof. Allan Lichtman who has correctly forecast presidential elections for 30 years. He called this one for Trump in September. (For a simpler, but probably correct take, read this.)

Two questions for your table:

1. When something occurs against all odds, pundits call it an upset and religious people a miracle. Was it an upset, a quasi-miracle?

2. Does this election herald the final downfall of faith in polls and pols?

If not, why not?

If yes, what then?


Shabbat Shalom


PS - Are you counting the days to Channuka?
PPS - Did you find this week's easter egg?

When you forgive, you in no way change the past - but you sure do change the future.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/topics/topic_forgiveness.html

When you forgive, you in no way change the past - but you sure do change the future.
Read more at: http://www.brainyquote.com/quotes/topics/topic_forgivene

dfdfd

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The Poly Ticks

The goal of this blog is to avoid politics at the Friday night dinner table.
Dedicated to the continued and speedy recovery of my Mom, who is returned home from rehab this week and is doing better every day. (To dedicate a future Table Talk, send an email.)
As you know, this space avoids politics and current events like the plague.

This week so many people have asked me my take on the popularity of Mr. Trump and my curiosity was piqued enough to do some research.

To me, the wild theories by non-Trump supporters trying to make sense of his popularity are even more extraordinary than his popularity itself.

According to NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben, quoting various polls and studies, people support Trump because they are un-intellectual xenophobic paranoids. The Washington Post's Jeff Guo says nearly the same thing.

"NerdWriter" Evan Puschak boils it down to the un-intellectual part, for Trump evidently speaks at a 3rd grade level. (There is a video version of Pushak's analysis here.)

The Atlantic, too, finds that his popularity is a result of (mostly poor white male) ignorance and racism.

This Huffington Post collumnist, under the headline "I Know the Real Reason Why Donald Trump is So Popular", has the chuzpa to say:

I don't even think most of the Trump supporters realize why they like him so much. They think they like Trump's "tough talk." But that's not what it is. They're simply hypnotized by the power of celebrity. It's sort of like how if your grandfather gets a tattoo, it's gross. Meanwhile, if an attractive woman gets the exact same tattoo, it's sexy. It's not the tattoo- it's the woman. It's not what Trump says- it's the celebrity saying it.

One common theory among the dumfounded is that the Trump phenomenon is nothing short of class-war-driven fascism. Consider this alarmed analysis from Presbyterian minister Chris Hedges:

There are tens of millions of Americans, especially lower-class whites, rightfully enraged at what has been done to them, their families and their communities. They have risen up to reject the neoliberal policies and political correctness imposed on them by college-educated elites from both political parties: Lower-class whites are embracing an American fascism.

All of the above is, in my opinion, wishful thinking.

This morning C-SPAN asked Trump supports to call in and tell why they are Trump supporters.

Here is the entire 20-minute segment (requires updated Flash).

The callers were not under-educated. They were not mostly white males.

They were often women, mostly well-educated, sometimes African Americans.

Here's the basic message I heard from caller after caller:

"I support Trump because he is not trying to be a smooth-talking politician and because he is an outsider to the big-money-driven machine of Washington D.C. Yes, he's sometimes offensive or illogical, but those qualities are less offensive to me than being motivated by greed."

In other words, ever since September 26, 1960, we have allowed our video media to drive elections more and more towards style rather than substance.

Think about it: does being the sharpest debater make you the best president?

Along comes Mr. Trump and thumbs his nose at that entire image-driven culture. His willingness to say offensive things actually makes him appear more genuine and trustworthy.

He appears to say what he really believes and not merely insincere sweet talk in order to get elected.

That, as my grandfather would have said, is my two-bits.

Leaving you with this question for your table: Given the following alternatives, what's more important in a leader: that s/he should be a tactful, impressive statesman, or that s/he should be genuine and trustworthy?


Shabbat Shalom 


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